Showing posts with label Steven Sweeney. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Steven Sweeney. Show all posts

Saturday, December 15, 2018

NJ School District Consolidation and Tax Apportionment


A major political saga of 2019 is going to be the fate of Senate President Steve Sweeney "Path to Progress" tax savings recommendations.

Sweeney's task force differs from many previous attempts to address property taxes in New Jersey by making an assumption that NJ has a spending problem, not a revenue problem, and therefore makes 40 recommendations to help rein in state and local spending in New Jersey.

One of "Path to Progress's" recommendation that I'll address here is the recommendation to consolidate all non-K-12 districts into K-12 districts.

This blog post will then identify the complexities that will arise in tax apportionment in newly-consolidated districts and why taxation must be apportioned by Equalized Valuation and not student enrollment.

---- The Consolidation Recommendation ----

As NJ State Senator Vin Gopal writes:

One of the smartest ways to provide property tax savings is to regionalize services where we can save tax dollars while providing equal or better service.

Let�s start with school regionalization. On average, more than 50 percent of every property tax bill goes into funding education from preschool to 12th grade. New Jersey students score second only to Massachusetts on national standardized exams, and the quality of our schools is one of our best selling points as a state.
But we can do better and at a lower cost. Too often, our K-4, K-6 and K-8 school districts do not coordinate curriculum or teaching methods, textbooks or specialized services with the regional high school districts their children will be attending, so 7th and 9th graders arrive with different skill sets. 
Furthermore, a recent analysis showed that the 120 K-4 to K-8 school districts with 480 or fewer students spent 17 percent more on average � about $3,400 per child � than the 360 districts with more than 1,000 students. 
Clearly, it makes sense on both an educational and a cost basis to move forward with K-12 regionalization plans that will create larger districts with the more diverse curriculum that students need heading into high school while saving on duplicative administrative and back-office operations.

----Background on Enrollment and Taxes----

Although K-12 districts educate 71% of NJ's students, they are actually just 22% of NJ's geographically-defined districts.  (NJ non-geographically defined districts are charter schools, special education districts, and vo-techs.)
  • K-6, 56 districts, 12% of the total districts, but only 32,410 students, or 3.1% of enrollment.
  • K-8, 222 districts, 47% of the total, but only 179,473 students, or 17.2% of enrollment. 
  • 7-12 and 9-12, 64 districts, 14% of the total, but only 90,235 students, 8.7% of enrollment. 
  • K-12, 131 districts, 28% of the total, but 740,311 students, 71% of enrollment.
Overall, NJ's K-6s and K-8s have a slightly disproportionate share of NJ's overall tax base relative to K-12s but a much wider variation in wealth than K-12s.  K-6 and K-8 districts range from NJ's fourth poorest district in tax base, Woodlynne, whose Local Fair Share is only $2,343 per student, to all fifteen of NJ's richest districts in tax base, with Avalon as the absolute richest, whose Local Fair Share is $1,935,039 per student.

Of the sixty districts in NJ with the highest tax bases per student, 42 are K-6 or K-8 districts.

District TypeDistrict NameLocal Fair Share Per StudentDistrict TypeDistrict NameLocal Fair Share Per Student
K-8Avalon Boro$1,935,039K-8Colts Neck $36,596
K-8Stone Harbor Boro$1,146,4547-12 / 9-12Southern Regional$36,285
K-8Alloway Twp$1,006,527K-12Millburn $35,462
K-6Long Beach Island$236,582K-8Tewksbury $34,964
K-6Beach Haven Boro$170,436K-8Florham Park $32,272
K-8Spring Lake Boro$166,397K-8Belmar Boro$32,268
K-8Sea Girt Boro$153,326K-8Bradley Beach Boro$32,085
K-8Andover Reg$151,537K-8Spring Lake Heights Boro$31,695
K-8Bay Head Boro$148,283K-12Princeton$31,619
K-8Lavallette Boro$135,130K-6Edgewater Boro$31,576
K-6Saddle River Boro$121,1367-12 / 9-12Shore Regional$30,669
K-8North Wildwood City$105,581K-12Point Pleasant Beach Boro$30,291
K-8Deal Boro$93,959K-12Summit City$29,903
K-6Cape May City$92,527K-8Mendham Boro$29,491
K-8Margate City$90,812K-12Weehawken $29,326
K-12Hoboken City$79,1067-12 / 9-12Warren Hills Regional$29,205
K-8Englewood Cliffs Boro$70,8047-12 / 9-12Carlstadt-East Rutherford$27,958
K-12Ocean City$65,703K-12Mahwah Twp$27,740
K-8Wildwood Crest Boro$62,655K-12Paramus Boro$27,706
K-8Monmouth Beach Boro$57,5167-12 / 9-12Rumson-Fair Haven Reg$27,539
K-8Avon Boro$56,337K-8Watchung Boro$27,460
K-8Franklin Lakes Boro$45,511K-8Cranbury Twp$26,819
K-8Brigantine City$45,091K-8East Hanover Twp$26,682
K-6Essex Fells Boro$44,064K-8Woodcliff Lake Boro$26,594
K-8Bedminster Twp$40,784K-8North Haledon Boro$26,549
K-6West Cape May Boro$39,498K-8Demarest Boro$26,458
K-8Mendham Twp$38,0437-12 / 9-12Hanover Park Regional$26,254
K-8Carlstadt Boro$37,1127-12 / 9-12Watchung Hills Regional$26,190
K-12Somerset Hills Regional$36,9937-12 / 9-12West Essex Regional$25,963
K-8Rumson Boro$36,919K-6North Caldwell $25,908

So, Sen. Vin Gopal's statement about high spending is slightly incomplete about the causation of high average spending in small districts because many K-6s and K-8s are extremely rich in tax base and they skew the spending average higher.  Avalon Boro alone is an outlier and skews the spending of K-8s higher.

NJ Districts with the Highest Spending PP. The Small Districts on This List Have Huge Tax Bases
District TypeName2016-17 Total Spending Per PupilDistrict TypeName2016-17 Total Spending Per Pupil
B. K-8 / 0 - 400Avalon Boro$61,489B. K-8 / 0 - 400Alpine Boro$30,633
F. K-12 / 1801 - 3500Asbury Park City$36,957G. K-12 / 3501 +Lakewood Twp$30,441
B. K-8 / 0 - 400Margate City$34,881C. K-8 / 401 - 750Brigantine City$29,886
B. K-8 / 0 - 400Stone Harbor Boro$34,679H. 7-12 / 9-12Shore Regional$29,864
B. K-8 / 0 - 400North Wildwood City$34,213B. K-8 / 0 - 400Spring Lake Boro$29,642
H. 7-12 / 9-12Henry Hudson Reg.$32,760H. 7-12 / 9-12Monmouth Reg.$29,230
A. K-6Beach Haven Boro$32,305D. K-8 / 751 +Colts Neck Twp$29,007
H. 7-12 / 9-12Carlstadt-East Rutherford$32,230G. K-12 / 3501 +East Orange$28,655
A. K-6Long Beach Island$32,077E. K-12 / 0 - 1800Burlington City$28,460
B. K-8 / 0 - 400Califon Boro$31,485D. K-8 / 751 +Franklin Lakes $28,315
B. K-8 / 0 - 400Milford Boro$31,446G. K-12 / 3501 +Neptune Twp$28,252
C. K-8 / 401 - 750Demarest Boro$31,226C. K-8 / 401 - 750Mendham Twp$28,113
G. K-12 / 3501 +Camden City$31,151B. K-8 / 0 - 400East Amwell $28,109
E. K-12 / 0 - 1800Keansburg Boro$30,950B. K-8 / 0 - 400Frenchtown $28,008
H. 7-12 / 9-12High Point Reg.$30,800H. 7-12 / 9-12Northern Valley Reg.$27,945

---- To Apportion Taxes By Enrollment or Tax Base, That is the Question ----


Because there will be situations where K-6 and K-8 districts will be merged with districts who are much less wealthy or more wealthy than they are, a battle will arise on how taxes are to be apportioned.
  • If taxes are apportioned by enrollment -- so that a town that contributes 15% of the students pays 15% of the costs even if it does not possess 15% of the tax base -- then there will be divergences in tax rate between the towns.  
  • If taxes are apportioned by Equalized Valuation -- so that a town that has 15% of the tax base pays 15% of the costs -- then tax rates between the towns will be equal, although per pupil costs will diverge. 
To illustrate this point about how enrollment and tax base will not line up, let's just consider a hypothetical "Northeastern Monmouth Regional School District," which would consist of the six towns who now send students to Asbury Park High School: Lake Como, Deal, Allenhurst, Belmar, Interlaken, and Asbury Park itself.



Since Asbury Park has 71% of the students at this consolidated district, it would have to pay 71% of the costs, which is triple its share of the tax base.

Deal, which has 35% of the combined tax base, would pay merely 6% of the costs to match its 6% of the total enrollment.

Mathematically, Asbury Park's tax rate would be 18x what Deal's is if taxes are based on enrollment.

If taxes are based on enrollment, then the tax bases of Deal, Allenhurst, Interlaken, and to a lesser extent Belmar and Lake Como would effectively be "walled off" from being tapped and the tax base would appear artificially low in the eyes of SFRA.  The State of New Jersey would then have to deliver unneeded Equalization Aid.  Apportioning taxes by enrollment would thus make a mockery out of SFRA since the Equalized Valuations of towns with high tax base:enrollment ratios would be untouchable by the consolidated school districts.

BY CONTRAST, under tax apportionment by Equalized Valuation, every district would have an equal tax rate, although taxes per student would be very high and Deal, Interlaken, and Allenhurst. They would probably end up paying over $100,000 per student they actually send to the new district.

Many people living in Deal, Interlaken, and Allenhurst would argue that that is "unfair" to make them pay more per student than less-wealthy towns, but is it "unfair" if the taxpayers in a wealthy section of a town pay more per student than the taxpayers in a poor section? Is it unfair if the owners of a $600,000 house pay more per student than the owners of a $400,000 house?

If taxes were apportioned by enrollment, a family living in Asbury Park would pay thousands of dollars more per year in property taxes than a family living in a property of identical value in another town.  Since the tax rates would vary so much, even houses worth $100,000 in Asbury Park would pay more in school taxes than $1+ million houses in Deal, Interlaken, and Allenhurst.

The phenomenon of staggeringly unequal tax rates already happens in Manchester Regional High School in Passaic County, where North Haledon, Prospect Park, and Haledon have a unique hybrid tax apportionment formula that is based 50% on Equalized Valuation and 50% on enrollment.

Although North Haledon has 60% of the three towns' tax base, it only pays  21% of the taxes.  Conversely, Prospect Park has only 14% of the tax base, but it must pay 31% of the taxes.


See "Manchester Regional: NJ's Most Underaided and Divided School District"

If apportionment by student enrollment is duplicated in all consolidated districts, then inequality like will exist through New Jersey.

---- Conclusion ----

The elected officials who are promoting consolidation in the Path to Progress deserve respect for taking on multiple third-rails of NJ politics in school spending and home rule.

However, consolidation isn't something that will save every taxpayer money, even if school district administrative expenses decrease.  If newly consolidated school districts apportion taxes by Equalized Valuation, which I see as the only fair way to have apportionment, then some towns that have walled off their tax bases behind "home home" independence are going to have to pay higher taxes (aka, their fair share).

Although towns who have high ratios of tax base:students will resist fighting their fair share and make this an uphill struggle, it's a battle to make sure that all New Jersey taxpayers have somewhat equal burdens for local education and therefore a battle worth fighting.

-----

See Also





















So

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

2018-19 State Aid Disparities Narrow, But Remain Stark


Thanks to the determination of Senate President Steve Sweeney, his legislative allies, and grassroots
support from parents in underfunded districts, Gov. Phil Murphy agreed to allow a limited redistribution of K-12 state aid to take place and to focus new state aid on NJ's most underaided districts.

The redistribution of $32.1 million of Adjustment Aid combined with the input of $351.4 million in new aid brings NJ $381 million closer to state aid justice, but as we are about to see in this blog post, 100% funding for every district in seven years is likely unachievable.

As usual, I've put all the state aid data referred to here online.

The Outline:

The median district is underaided by $417 per student and receives only 85% of its Uncapped Aid.

The Overaided:
Yet, there are 190 districts receiving over 100% of what the School Funding Reform Act says they actually need.

Their total excess state aid is $651,944,818, which is larger than the $637,776,892 surplus for 2017-18.

The reason that excess grew for 2018-19 despite the legislature's $32.1 million cut to Adjustment Aid is because the overaided districts tend to have further enrollment loss and/or tax base growth.  Jersey City alone will be overaided by $20 million more in 2018-19 than in 2017-18, despite its loss of $3.5 million in Adjustment Aid.

There are 76 districts who are overaided by $2,000 per student or more and 19 districts who are overaided by $4,000 per student more. Asbury Park, as in years past, has the largest excess in NJ, at $10,869 per student. Asbury Park's excess is an outlier, since the second most overaided district, Weymouth Township, only has an excess of $8,690 per student.

In terms of percentages, there are 54 districts getting 200% or more of their recommended aid.  Washington Township in Burlington County is the most overaided in percentage terms, getting 521% of its real aid target. 

In terms of percentages, there are 54 districts getting 200% or more of their recommended aid.

The 100%ers:
There are 17 districts getting exactly 100% of what is recommended, the largest of which are Lakewood and Freehold Township.

The Underaided:

There are 370 districts getting less than 100% of what SFRA says they need.

Their total deficit is -$1,747,896,430.  There are 109 districts who are underaided by $2,000 per student or more and 35 who are underaided by $4,000 per student or more.  There were 118 districts with the $2,000 per student deficit for 2017-18.

Atlantic City is the most underaided district in NJ, with a deficit of -$7,378 per student, even including its $32 million in Commercial Valuation Stabilization Aid. Atlantic City's deficit remains enormous, but it is significantly less than the most underaided district for 2017-18, which was Bound Brook with a -$9,546 per student deficit.




The $1.748 billion deficit for 2018-19 is only $217 million less than the $1,965,333,325 deficit for 2017-18, despite the infusion of $381 million in new and redistributed state aid.

The reason that the deficit shrank by substantially less than the input of new+redistributed aid is because the true deficit increases every year due to weighted enrollment growth, tax base erosion, and inflation.  (see below)

Sweeney's state aid proposed was designed to give the biggest increases to districts with the worst percentage underfunding with the goal of a 58% threshold, so there are only eight districts getting less than 50% of their Uncapped Aid.  Woodbridge is now the most underaided in percentage terms, getting only 42% of what it is supposed to get. 

Chesterfield, which only got 10% of its recommended aid in 2016-17 and 20% of its recommended aid in 2017-18 will now receive 58% of its Uncapped Aid. From 2016-17 to 2018-19 Chesterfield's state aid has grown from $419,983 to $2,403,780, a 473% increase (with more to come).

Steve Sweeney often said that he was bringing every district up to 58% of its Uncapped Aid, but this is not accurate, since Sweeney and his allies were forced to cap aid limits for large underaided districts such as Woodbridge and even some small districts who were exceptionally underaided, such as Fairview.  As you can see inm the table below, there are 16 districts who remain below 58%, with Woodbridge being the state's most underaided in percentage terms.  

KEARNY 57.73%
ROBBINSVILLE TWP 56.09%
BLOOMFIELD TWP 55.44%
ATLANTIC CITY (see note) 55.07%
LINDEN 55.00%
PASSAIC COUNTY VOCATIONAL 54.08%
BOUND BROOK 51.75%
FAIRVIEW BORO 51.47%
CLIFTON CITY 47.31%
HACKENSACK CITY 47.24%
WEST ORANGE 47.06%
ELMWOOD PARK 44.46%
ATLANTIC CO VOCATIONAL 43.93%
EDISON TWP 43.04%
NORTH BRUNSWICK TWP 42.08%
WOODBRIDGE TWP 41.72%

Overall, 117 districts are now exactly at the 58% threshold.

Although the need to cap aid increases for 2018-19 is disappointing, in 2019-20 and beyond, these districts will have the largest increases proportionally, since (if Murphy signs S2), new aid will be based on each district's deficit, not its existing aid.

Per Pupil Gains and Losses from 2017-18

The legislature's increase for 2018-19 was structured onto Phil Murphy's SFRA-literalist proposal, in which state aid was determined by inflating a district's existing aid by (usually) 5%, so districts already getting 80-90% of their Uncapped Aid got the largest gains.  Hence Trenton gained +$793 per pupil and Newark gained +$729 per pupil, even though those districts were only underaided by about $2800 per student, which not even close to NJ's largest deficits.

Under Murphy SFRA-literalist approach, 13 districts (all Abbotts) gained 48% of all new state aid.

Aid increases in dollars per student are available here.

Sweeney and his allies kept Phil Murphy's original distribution for all underaided districts, but then
Bound Brook had been NJ's most underaided district in
dollars per student (-$9,546 pp for 2017-18). 
Although Sweney used percentage underaidin,
it gained the most in dollars per student (+$2289).
strove to bring every district up to 58% of its Uncapped Aid.  Under this plan, Newark and Trenton didn't gain additional aid, but they didn't lose any state aid either.  Because of the focus on the 58% threshold, severely underaided districts who were at or above that level did not gain any additional state aid under the Sweeney plan.  EG, Belleville is underaided by $4252 pp, but it gained nothing over it had originally been supposed to get under Murphy's plan because Belleville was already at 60% of its Uncapped Aid and the Sweeney team used percentage underaiding. 
  
In any case, these districts are the ones who are gaining the most in dollars-per-student.

DistrictGain in $/PPDistrictGain in $/PP
BOUND BROOK$2,289UNION COUNTY VOCATIONAL$1,606
ATLANTIC CO VOCATIONAL$2,213ABSECON CITY$1,515
MANVILLE$2,163DUNELLEN$1,446
CUMBERLAND CO VOCATIONAL$2,100RED BANK BORO$1,399
CHESTERFIELD$2,055ELMWOOD PARK$1,398
FAIRVIEW BORO$1,951GUTTENBERG$1,337
FREEHOLD BORO$1,890PASSAIC COUNTY VOCATIONAL$1,302
MANCHESTER REG$1,830MERCHANTVILLE $1,274
LITTLE FERRY$1,787ROCKAWAY BORO$1,246
RIDGEFIELD PARK$1,764KENILWORTH$1,225

What is also important to note is that the majority of NJ's severely underaided districts gained more state aid in the Sweeney model than the Murphy-Repollet SFRA-literalist model, although not always.



The reduction of Adjustment Aid was done through a more complex method that sometimes depended on spending relative to Adequacy and municipal overburden. Vo-techs were also exempted from any cuts.

The following districts lost the most:

District Loss in $/PP District Loss in $/PP
OGDENSBURG ($212) PEMBERTON TWP ($317)
LOWER CAPE MAY REGIONAL ($218) ALLENHURST ($321)
LAKEWOOD ($221) OCEAN TWP ($325)
CORBIN CITY ($223) HAMPTON BORO ($330)
DELAWARE VALLEY REGIONAL ($223) ALEXANDRIA TWP ($361)
KNOWLTON TWP ($243) DENNIS TWP ($373)
CLINTON TWP ($261) WEYMOUTH TWP ($470)
SPRINGFIELD TWP ($268) ASBURY PARK ($591)
MONTAGUE TWP ($277) WASHINGTON TWP ($801)
HOPATCONG ($288) GLASSBORO ($948)

Although the media focused on Jersey City being the "biggest loser" for losing $3.5 million and that being the most in total dollars, that loss is only $114 per student.

By contrast, Glassboro lost $1,816,764, which, divided by Glassboro's 1916 students, is $948 per student.

Sweeney's Plan is Good Policy, But It Won't Bring Every District to 100% of State Aid

Toms River, Brick, Freehold Regional, Manalapan-Englishtown, Jersey City, and Ocean City have been at the forefront of opposition to state aid reform, saying that it would "decimate" their districts if they receive only 100% of their state aid.

However, these districts should be aware of their continuing advantage, since even in seven years, today's underaided districts will still not be at 100% funding, so the overaided districts who are losing state aid now will still be advantaged.

Although the 2018-19 state aid distribution takes New Jersey $217 million closer to having every district at 100% funding, 100% funding will remain out of reach in 2024-25.

The major reason for the improbability of bringing every district to 100% is that the deficit for 2018-19 will be $1,747,896,430, so even the full redistribution of $651,944,818 will still leave New Jersey with a $1.1 billion net deficit.

The major reason NJ is unlikely to be able to fully fund the underaided districts is that the true deficit increases by $100-$200 million per year, so, even conservatively estimated, in 2024-25, the underaided districts could require another $1 billion on top of the $1.747 billion they would need to be fully funded in 2018-19.

Although Adjustment Aid will probably grow over the next seven years, not all of that $651,944,818 in 2018-19's Adjustment Aid will be available to be redistributed because several tens of millions of it goes to districts who are being protected from aid cuts by the carve-outs for being below Adequacy, having "municipal overburden," or being vo-techs.

I do not have the exact amount of "protected Adjustment Aid," but East Orange alone has $24.4 in excess aid, Keansburg has $7.6 million, Vineland has $5.4 million, Gloucester City has $1.2 million. Monmouth County Vo-Tech has $6 million in excess aid, Ocean County Vo-Tech has $4.3 million. Between those districts and other protected districts, there is probably $50 million in "protected Adjustment Aid."

On the other hand, unless there is a recession, the State of New Jersey will experience annual revenue growth, but the amount of money left over for K-12 aid after expenses for TPAF (+$392.5 mil for FY19) and post-retirement medical (+$51.8 mil) will not equal the $284 million it was for 2018-19 since the 2018-19 budget was powered by increasing income tax rates, the transfer of the state lottery, fiscal gimmicks, flat-funding Extraordinary Aid, flat-funding municipal aid, plus stronger income tax revenue growth.

So, future new money for K-12 aid will be much less than the $284 million it was for 2018-19.

There are two factors in NJ's budgetary favor.  
  • In 2022-23 NJ is projected to reach 100% of its pension funding, so starting in 2023-24 NJ should have much more new money available for K-12 aid (or other Property Tax Relief Fund spending).  
  • The Debt Servicing costs for construction debt should start to fall, (unless there is another round of Abbott construction bonding).
Reaching 100% of state aid for all districts will also depend on what decisions the governor and legislature make regarding other expenses that are paid out of the Property Tax Relief Fund, ie, municipal aid, direct property tax rebates, community college, and PreK.

Given the state's extreme budget pressures for debt streams like TPAF and post-retirement medical, plus the appropriateness of funding municipal aid and direct tax rebates, and the likelihood of increases for PreK, the need to redistribute Adjustment Aid will become no less acute in the future.

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