Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Brick, Toms River, and their State Aid


Since the beginning of Steve Sweeney's efforts to redistribute Adjustment Aid, Toms River and Brick have been two of the most vocal opponents of reform.

The two districts have launched petitions for their Adjustment Aid, initiated lobbying, and now commenced a lawsuit, for which Brick's BOE has already authorized $10,000 and Toms River has authorized $5,000.

Brick and Toms River have depicted the prospect of "only" being funded at 100% as "decimating"
The day of reckoning we have been describing for the last four years is here," [Toms River] Superintendent David M. Healy said. "This year�s state aid losses as well as the future projections will unequivocally devastate this school district in terms of programs, services, staff, class sizes, property taxes, facilities and our ability to provide a thorough and efficient education to our children."
And:
"[Loss of Adjustment Aid] will certainly start decimating our district, starting now."

Brick's Democratic mayor, John Ducey, has just endorsed Chris Christie's already-dead equal funding proposal:

"Why is a kid in another district worth more than a kid here in Brick Township?" Brick Mayor John G. Ducey said Tuesday. "They're not. Every kid should be equally funded. It's just a total abomination of our constitution here in New Jersey."

This blog post will look at Brick and Toms Rivers' tax capacity, loss of enrollment, and then pivot to agreeing with Brick that SFRA itself is not fair to middle-income districts in New Jersey.

Background: 

Despite the aid cuts of 2018-19, Brick and Toms River are substantially advantaged by the state aid status quo.

Whereas the median district is underaided by $417 per student, Brick is overaided by $2,525 per student and Toms River by $1,157 per student.



Brick's 2018-19 state aid surplus is $21,331,456. Toms Rivers' surplus is $17,581,822.

The deficit for the underaided districts is $1.75 billion.

In 2017-18 and before, Brick and Toms River were more advantaged than in 2018-19. Brick's surplus was $2,703 per student and Toms Rivers' was $1,376 per student.

Brick and Toms River Have Low School Taxes

First, Brick and Toms River both have school tax rates that are much lower than the state average.

Whereas New Jersey's average school tax rate is 1.2, Brick and Toms River have tax rates that are approximately 1%, 1.0666% for Brick and 0.9244% for Toms River.

For Brick, the 2018-19 school tax levy is 82.6% of its Local Fair Share. For Toms River, the 2018-19 school tax levy is 78.5% of its Local Fair Share.

The median district in NJ pays 98.5% of its Local Fair Share.

2018-19 Local Fair Share 2018-19 Local Tax Levy Tax Deficit 2018-19 Adjustment Aid
Brick $129,909,386 $107,261,323 ($22,648,063) $21,331,456
Toms River $197,787,405 $155,329,012 ($42,458,393) $17,581,822




Again, the amount of state aid that Brick and Toms River are projected to lose over the next six years is not even equal to the deficit in each district's tax capacity.

Counting municipal and county taxes, neither Brick nor Toms River has high all-in taxes.  Brick's all-in tax rate is 2.058%.  Toms Rivers' is 1.895%.  The state average all-in property tax rate is 2.4%.

Although Brick and Toms River would be rightly concerned about the tax cap, based on the experience of other towns in NJ who exist with higher school taxes, Brick and Toms River are able to pay for a larger percentage of their local schools than they currently do.

Loss of Enrollment, Loss of Equalized Valuation

Both Brick and Toms River have had substantial enrollment loss in last 15-20 years, losing 24% and 15% of their enrollments, respectively.  Although Hurricane Sandy was an enrollment-loss inflection point, the enrollment loss began several years before Hurricane Sandy and is mirrored in other towns in non-metropolitan New Jersey who are not affected by Hurricane Sandy.

Brick's enrollment peaked in 2003-04, at 11,450. Toms River's enrollment also peaked in 2003-04, at 18,192.5.



By contrast, the state's enrollment is only down by 1% since its 2005-2006 peak.

Hurricane Sandy

There's no denying that Brick and Toms River have lost tax base over the last few years, in part by Hurricane Sandy.   From 2008 to 2018, Brick lost 17% of its Equalized Valuation and Toms River lost 10%, compared to the state's average loss of only 6.6%.

HOWEVER, SFRA compensates Brick and Toms River for the loss of tax base, since as a district's Equalized Valuation and Aggregate Income shrink, so does its Local Fair Share.  As Local Fair Share decreases, Equalization Aid increases.

Brick and Toms Rivers' boards of education may decide that their communities do not need to handle paying the state's 1.3% average tax rate, but they have the option of cutting costs.

I do not think that consolidating schools is easy, but it is a prospect in large swathes of New Jersey and at some point it becomes a necessity.

Here Brick and Toms River are actually advantaged because they are very large school districts with 12 and 18 schools, respectively.

Brick is Right About One Big Thing about SFRA

Although I strongly support the redistribution of Adjustment Aid and I believe that Brick and Toms River are in denial about their ability to pay higher local taxes and even consolidate schools, I am in agreement with Brick that SFRA sees Brick as a "wealthy district" when in actuality it is merely middle-income.

"Under the formula, Brick Township is considered a wealthy district."

Without Adjustment Aid, Brick would only receive $12,811,141 for its 8,449 students, which is $1,516 per student.

If you compare Brick's state aid target to the targets of extremely wealthy districts, you can see that Brick is essentially treated as a wealthy district too:


State Aid Target Per StudentLocal Fair Share Per Student
BRICK$1,516$15,376
PRINCETON$1,193$31,619
RUMSON-FAIR HAVEN REG$1,204$27,539
PARAMUS $1,214$27,706
HOBOKEN $1,207$79,106
SPRING LAKE BORO$1,411$166,397
AVALON $2,041$1,935,039
OCEAN CITY$1,127$65,703
FLORHAM PARK $1,126$32,272
MILLBURN $1,125$35,462

I'll compare Brick to Princeton, since Brick has complained about Princeton gaining state aid while it
Avalon is NJ's Richest District in Tax Base Per Student, so
Why on Earth does Avalon, NJ Need $2041 Per Student
in State Aid?
loses state aid, although Princeton is not even close to being NJ's wealthiest district (which is Avalon).

Brick's median household income is $70,655. Princeton's median household income is $118,467.

Although Brick's $1,516 state aid target might be 27% higher than Princeton's in percentage terms, it is only dollars per student that is budgetarily meaningful. 

Brick's $323 superior state funding per student relative to Princeton is very little additional state support in terms of the overall budget.  

To put it another way, Princeton is supposed to fund 92.4% of its Adequacy Budget with local taxes; Brick is supposed to fund 90.6%. 





To put it another way mathematically, SFRA expects Princeton to tax itself at $14,478 per student. It expects Brick to tax itself as $14,692 per student, even though Brick has nowhere near Princeton's wealth. In actuality, Princeton taxes itself at $19,825 per student because it wants to have higher spending.  (and that amount is nowhere near Princeton's Local Fair Share.)

What Brick is complaining about is a statewide problem. For 2018-19, 44% of NJ districts are not supposed to receive Equalization Aid. All in, there are 269/588 districts in NJ are that are supposed to receive less than $2,000 per student.

The reason we haven't heard about how inadequate SFRA's target is for middle-class districts is because most NJ's middle-class districts are underaided compared to their SFRA target anyway, and so for them to get even $1525 per student like Brick is supposed to get would be an improvement.

I will write a future post on making NJ school funding fairer to middle-class districts.

The Bottom Line is that NJ Can't Afford Adjustment Aid

Brick and Toms River aren't wealthy enough to just shrug off the loss of Adjustment Aid, but the bottom line is that they can afford to pay the same tax rates that other non-wealthy towns pay.  I acknowledge that it will be damaging to pay more in taxes, but Brick and Toms Rivers' taxes are artificially low due to the involuntary generosity of taxpayers in the rest of New Jersey.  It would be nice if NJ had a state aid law that helped middle-income districts, but given that we don't, it's inherently unfair to treat some middle-class districts differently than other middle-class districts.

NJ does not have a budgetary choice but to redistribute state aid.  For 2018-19, the state aid deficit for the 370 underaided districts was $1.74 billion and that continually grows.

Although 2018-19 Adjustment Aid was technically $652 million, at least $50 million of that is already roped off from redistribution because it goes to vo-techs or districts with very high municipal taxes.

Given NJ's intensifying needs to fund teacher pensions, post-retirement medical, and other debts, the state cannot create equity in K-12 school funding by increasing state aid alone and redistribution has to be part of the solution.

Redistributing state aid does mean some districts must lose state aid, but these districts will only be reduced to 100% of their recommended funding.  When NJ has 370 districts who are currently given less than 100% funding, I have a hard time seeing the unfairness of that.

-----

See Also:













Thursday, October 11, 2018

Changes in Equalized Valuation for FY2019 and Implications for State Aid

The NJ Department of Treasury has just released the Equalized Valuation of every town in New Jersey for FY2019 and thus given us an insight into  shifts in state aid for 2018-19 and New Jersey economic trends.

What is Equalized Valuation?
Equalized Valuation is the market value of all the (taxable) property in a town.  It is updated every year by the county tax assessor and is used to apportion county taxes and, theoretically, school aid.

(see note at bottom for how Equalized Valuation is calculated)

Implications for State Aid

Equalized Valuation is used, along with Aggregate Income, to determine a district's Local Fair Share, which is one of the two components of Equalization Aid

The formula for Equalization Aid is:

Adequacy Budget - Local Fair Share = Equalization Aid


So, if a district had an Adequacy Budget of $80 million and a Local Fair Share of $60 million, it would receive $20 million in Equalization Aid, since $80 million - $60 million = $20 million.

If a district's Local Fair Share exceeds its Adequacy Budget, it does not receive Equalization Aid.  45% of NJ districts are not supposed to receive Equalization Aid in 2018-19.

The formula for Local Fair Share for 2018-19 is:

(Equalized Valuation x 0.013828828) / 2 + (Aggregate Income x 0.046200477) / 2

Or in simpler terms:

0.7% of Equalized Valuation + 2.3% of Aggregate Income 

So, if a district gains $100 million in Equalized Valuation, that alone would increase its Local Fair Share by $690,000.  If a district gains $500 million in Equalized Valuation, that alone would increase its Local Fair Share by $3.45 million.  (assuming no change in Aggregate Income)

Jersey City has the largest Equalized Valuation in New Jersey, so I will use it as a concrete example.

Between Tax Year 2018 and Tax Year 2019, Jersey City gained $5.6 billion in Equalized Valuation.  That $5.6 billion gain will cause its Local Fair Share to increase by $38.7 million to about $430 million.  Since Jersey City is overaided by $170.6 million for 2018-19, that means its excess aid for 2019-20 will be $209 million.  (not counting the growth in Aggregate Income which will further increase the Local Fair Share)

Jersey City's massive $5.6 billion growth in Equalized Valuation is growth of 20%. It means that Jersey City's school tax rate will FALL to 0.36% ($124,367,357 out of $34,014,551,210.)

For underaided districts, the increase in Equalized Valuation does not have an impact, since it only changes the money they are theoretically due.  Newark's $1.2 billion gain in Equalized Valuation will translate into an $8.5 million loss in Equalization Aid.  Since Newark is underaided by $130 million anyway, the loss in Equalization Aid is theoretical.

Theoretical Equalization Aid Changes for Twelve Largest Districts in NJ Based on Changes in Equalized Valuation.


FY2018 Equalized ValuationFY2019 Equalized ValuationChangeEstimated Change in Local Fair Share2018-19 State Aid Excess or Deficit
NEWARK $16,078,534,983$17,311,594,311$1,233,059,328$8,525,883-$130,042,863
JERSEY CITY$28,418,886,079$34,014,551,210$5,595,665,131$38,690,745$170,778,034
PATERSON$6,539,377,143$7,437,865,364$898,488,221$6,212,520-$72,352,193
ELIZABETH $7,451,469,452$8,209,148,920$757,679,468$5,238,910-$68,825,175
EDISON $16,414,706,971$17,369,327,293$954,620,322$6,600,640-$26,154,921
CAMDEN CITY$1,778,745,868$1,718,104,905-$60,640,963-$419,297-$5,823,773
TOMS RIVER$15,418,546,251$15,838,934,146$420,387,895$2,906,736$17,581,822
TRENTON$2,413,197,158$2,441,950,609$28,753,451$198,813-$43,315,482
PASSAIC CITY$3,513,360,398$3,847,350,626$333,990,228$2,309,347-$9,814,810
WOODBRIDGE$10,839,569,983$12,096,056,828$1,256,486,845$8,687,870-$47,416,063
UNION CITY$3,852,537,098$4,074,202,239$221,665,141$1,532,685-$30,901,116
HAMILTON TWP$8,768,832,490$8,928,283,025$159,450,535$1,102,507-$681,835
CLIFTON $9,642,085,941$9,959,099,377$317,013,436$2,191,962-$39,036,502
CHERRY HILL$8,340,254,303$8,609,940,019$269,685,716$1,864,719-$12,524,161

The Broad View 

The State's total Equalized Valuation grew from $1,242,801,663,665 to $1,288,305,163,962, a one year net increase of $45 billion, or 3.7%, which actually exceeds inflation. However, the median town's gain was only 2.2%, since large portions of the state's total gain are concentrated in a few cities, with Jersey City gaining $5.6 billion and Newark gaining $1.2 billion.

Here is the change, county by county:



The $10 Billion Club

The towns with Equalized Valuations above $10 billion are, with their change in ranking from last year:

1. Jersey City, $34,014,551,210 (unchanged)

2. Edison, $17,369,327,293 (unchanged)

3. Hoboken, $17,341,543,272 (unchanged)

4. Newark, $17,311,594,311 (unchanged)

5. Toms River, $15,838,934,146 (unchanged)

6. Jersey City's PILOTed property, estimate at $12-$13 billion.

7. Ocean City, $12,499,744,267 (unchanged)

8. Woodbridge, $12,096,056,828 (plus 1)

9. Brick, $11,187,561,088 (plus 1)

10. Middletown, $11,110,150,917 (minus 2)

13. Lakewood, $10,738,156,516 (plus 2)

11. Millburn, $10,591,406,653 (minus 1)

12. Franklin Township, $10,556,664,931 (minus 1)

13.  Wayne Township, $10,291,011,176  (newcomer to $10 billion club)

Changes for NJ's Big Cities

The most important story of changes in Equalized Valuation is Jersey City's growth.  Jersey City has grown from having barely 1% of NJ's total Equalized Valuation in the 1990s to having 2.81% of NJ's total Equalized Valuation in tax year 2019.

I maintain my projection that Jersey City will no longer qualify for Equalization Aid in 6-7 years.




-------

See Also
-------

How is Equalized Valuation determined?
Equalized Valuation is determined by calculating the ratio of sales prices to a town's official assessment for its own local taxes.  If sale prices are, on average, 110% of properties's official assessments, then Equalized Valuation would equal 110% of a town's total official assessment.  If sale prices are 93% of official assessment, then Equalized Valuation would equal 93% of a town's total official assessment.

Because Equalized Valuation based on a ratio of sale prices to official assessment, a town's refusal to do a reval does not affect Equalized Valuation.  

Contrary to assertions from Sen. Mike Doherty and the Toms River Board of Education, Jersey City's decades-long refusal to do a reval did not distort its state aid since JC's Equalized Valuation constantly grew along with its real estate market.  Jersey City's state aid was distorted by Adjustment Aid and PILOTing, not the lack of a reval.  

If a town's Local Fair Share exceeds its Adequacy Budget, a change in Equalized Valuation has no theoretical impact on state aid at all, since it doesn't matter if a Local Fair Share exceeds Adequacy Budget by 5% or 150%.  Equalization Aid is $0 in either case.

Note: Equalized Valuation is not the same thing as the aggregate assessed value, which is the sum of all the individual assessments on properties and will not reflect real market value if the reval was not done recently.  Assessed values are only used for a town's internal tax apportionment.


-------


Tuesday, July 17, 2018

2018-19 State Aid Disparities Narrow, But Remain Stark


Thanks to the determination of Senate President Steve Sweeney, his legislative allies, and grassroots
support from parents in underfunded districts, Gov. Phil Murphy agreed to allow a limited redistribution of K-12 state aid to take place and to focus new state aid on NJ's most underaided districts.

The redistribution of $32.1 million of Adjustment Aid combined with the input of $351.4 million in new aid brings NJ $381 million closer to state aid justice, but as we are about to see in this blog post, 100% funding for every district in seven years is likely unachievable.

As usual, I've put all the state aid data referred to here online.

The Outline:

The median district is underaided by $417 per student and receives only 85% of its Uncapped Aid.

The Overaided:
Yet, there are 190 districts receiving over 100% of what the School Funding Reform Act says they actually need.

Their total excess state aid is $651,944,818, which is larger than the $637,776,892 surplus for 2017-18.

The reason that excess grew for 2018-19 despite the legislature's $32.1 million cut to Adjustment Aid is because the overaided districts tend to have further enrollment loss and/or tax base growth.  Jersey City alone will be overaided by $20 million more in 2018-19 than in 2017-18, despite its loss of $3.5 million in Adjustment Aid.

There are 76 districts who are overaided by $2,000 per student or more and 19 districts who are overaided by $4,000 per student more. Asbury Park, as in years past, has the largest excess in NJ, at $10,869 per student. Asbury Park's excess is an outlier, since the second most overaided district, Weymouth Township, only has an excess of $8,690 per student.

In terms of percentages, there are 54 districts getting 200% or more of their recommended aid.  Washington Township in Burlington County is the most overaided in percentage terms, getting 521% of its real aid target. 

In terms of percentages, there are 54 districts getting 200% or more of their recommended aid.

The 100%ers:
There are 17 districts getting exactly 100% of what is recommended, the largest of which are Lakewood and Freehold Township.

The Underaided:

There are 370 districts getting less than 100% of what SFRA says they need.

Their total deficit is -$1,747,896,430.  There are 109 districts who are underaided by $2,000 per student or more and 35 who are underaided by $4,000 per student or more.  There were 118 districts with the $2,000 per student deficit for 2017-18.

Atlantic City is the most underaided district in NJ, with a deficit of -$7,378 per student, even including its $32 million in Commercial Valuation Stabilization Aid. Atlantic City's deficit remains enormous, but it is significantly less than the most underaided district for 2017-18, which was Bound Brook with a -$9,546 per student deficit.




The $1.748 billion deficit for 2018-19 is only $217 million less than the $1,965,333,325 deficit for 2017-18, despite the infusion of $381 million in new and redistributed state aid.

The reason that the deficit shrank by substantially less than the input of new+redistributed aid is because the true deficit increases every year due to weighted enrollment growth, tax base erosion, and inflation.  (see below)

Sweeney's state aid proposed was designed to give the biggest increases to districts with the worst percentage underfunding with the goal of a 58% threshold, so there are only eight districts getting less than 50% of their Uncapped Aid.  Woodbridge is now the most underaided in percentage terms, getting only 42% of what it is supposed to get. 

Chesterfield, which only got 10% of its recommended aid in 2016-17 and 20% of its recommended aid in 2017-18 will now receive 58% of its Uncapped Aid. From 2016-17 to 2018-19 Chesterfield's state aid has grown from $419,983 to $2,403,780, a 473% increase (with more to come).

Steve Sweeney often said that he was bringing every district up to 58% of its Uncapped Aid, but this is not accurate, since Sweeney and his allies were forced to cap aid limits for large underaided districts such as Woodbridge and even some small districts who were exceptionally underaided, such as Fairview.  As you can see inm the table below, there are 16 districts who remain below 58%, with Woodbridge being the state's most underaided in percentage terms.  

KEARNY 57.73%
ROBBINSVILLE TWP 56.09%
BLOOMFIELD TWP 55.44%
ATLANTIC CITY (see note) 55.07%
LINDEN 55.00%
PASSAIC COUNTY VOCATIONAL 54.08%
BOUND BROOK 51.75%
FAIRVIEW BORO 51.47%
CLIFTON CITY 47.31%
HACKENSACK CITY 47.24%
WEST ORANGE 47.06%
ELMWOOD PARK 44.46%
ATLANTIC CO VOCATIONAL 43.93%
EDISON TWP 43.04%
NORTH BRUNSWICK TWP 42.08%
WOODBRIDGE TWP 41.72%

Overall, 117 districts are now exactly at the 58% threshold.

Although the need to cap aid increases for 2018-19 is disappointing, in 2019-20 and beyond, these districts will have the largest increases proportionally, since (if Murphy signs S2), new aid will be based on each district's deficit, not its existing aid.

Per Pupil Gains and Losses from 2017-18

The legislature's increase for 2018-19 was structured onto Phil Murphy's SFRA-literalist proposal, in which state aid was determined by inflating a district's existing aid by (usually) 5%, so districts already getting 80-90% of their Uncapped Aid got the largest gains.  Hence Trenton gained +$793 per pupil and Newark gained +$729 per pupil, even though those districts were only underaided by about $2800 per student, which not even close to NJ's largest deficits.

Under Murphy SFRA-literalist approach, 13 districts (all Abbotts) gained 48% of all new state aid.

Aid increases in dollars per student are available here.

Sweeney and his allies kept Phil Murphy's original distribution for all underaided districts, but then
Bound Brook had been NJ's most underaided district in
dollars per student (-$9,546 pp for 2017-18). 
Although Sweney used percentage underaidin,
it gained the most in dollars per student (+$2289).
strove to bring every district up to 58% of its Uncapped Aid.  Under this plan, Newark and Trenton didn't gain additional aid, but they didn't lose any state aid either.  Because of the focus on the 58% threshold, severely underaided districts who were at or above that level did not gain any additional state aid under the Sweeney plan.  EG, Belleville is underaided by $4252 pp, but it gained nothing over it had originally been supposed to get under Murphy's plan because Belleville was already at 60% of its Uncapped Aid and the Sweeney team used percentage underaiding. 
  
In any case, these districts are the ones who are gaining the most in dollars-per-student.

DistrictGain in $/PPDistrictGain in $/PP
BOUND BROOK$2,289UNION COUNTY VOCATIONAL$1,606
ATLANTIC CO VOCATIONAL$2,213ABSECON CITY$1,515
MANVILLE$2,163DUNELLEN$1,446
CUMBERLAND CO VOCATIONAL$2,100RED BANK BORO$1,399
CHESTERFIELD$2,055ELMWOOD PARK$1,398
FAIRVIEW BORO$1,951GUTTENBERG$1,337
FREEHOLD BORO$1,890PASSAIC COUNTY VOCATIONAL$1,302
MANCHESTER REG$1,830MERCHANTVILLE $1,274
LITTLE FERRY$1,787ROCKAWAY BORO$1,246
RIDGEFIELD PARK$1,764KENILWORTH$1,225

What is also important to note is that the majority of NJ's severely underaided districts gained more state aid in the Sweeney model than the Murphy-Repollet SFRA-literalist model, although not always.



The reduction of Adjustment Aid was done through a more complex method that sometimes depended on spending relative to Adequacy and municipal overburden. Vo-techs were also exempted from any cuts.

The following districts lost the most:

District Loss in $/PP District Loss in $/PP
OGDENSBURG ($212) PEMBERTON TWP ($317)
LOWER CAPE MAY REGIONAL ($218) ALLENHURST ($321)
LAKEWOOD ($221) OCEAN TWP ($325)
CORBIN CITY ($223) HAMPTON BORO ($330)
DELAWARE VALLEY REGIONAL ($223) ALEXANDRIA TWP ($361)
KNOWLTON TWP ($243) DENNIS TWP ($373)
CLINTON TWP ($261) WEYMOUTH TWP ($470)
SPRINGFIELD TWP ($268) ASBURY PARK ($591)
MONTAGUE TWP ($277) WASHINGTON TWP ($801)
HOPATCONG ($288) GLASSBORO ($948)

Although the media focused on Jersey City being the "biggest loser" for losing $3.5 million and that being the most in total dollars, that loss is only $114 per student.

By contrast, Glassboro lost $1,816,764, which, divided by Glassboro's 1916 students, is $948 per student.

Sweeney's Plan is Good Policy, But It Won't Bring Every District to 100% of State Aid

Toms River, Brick, Freehold Regional, Manalapan-Englishtown, Jersey City, and Ocean City have been at the forefront of opposition to state aid reform, saying that it would "decimate" their districts if they receive only 100% of their state aid.

However, these districts should be aware of their continuing advantage, since even in seven years, today's underaided districts will still not be at 100% funding, so the overaided districts who are losing state aid now will still be advantaged.

Although the 2018-19 state aid distribution takes New Jersey $217 million closer to having every district at 100% funding, 100% funding will remain out of reach in 2024-25.

The major reason for the improbability of bringing every district to 100% is that the deficit for 2018-19 will be $1,747,896,430, so even the full redistribution of $651,944,818 will still leave New Jersey with a $1.1 billion net deficit.

The major reason NJ is unlikely to be able to fully fund the underaided districts is that the true deficit increases by $100-$200 million per year, so, even conservatively estimated, in 2024-25, the underaided districts could require another $1 billion on top of the $1.747 billion they would need to be fully funded in 2018-19.

Although Adjustment Aid will probably grow over the next seven years, not all of that $651,944,818 in 2018-19's Adjustment Aid will be available to be redistributed because several tens of millions of it goes to districts who are being protected from aid cuts by the carve-outs for being below Adequacy, having "municipal overburden," or being vo-techs.

I do not have the exact amount of "protected Adjustment Aid," but East Orange alone has $24.4 in excess aid, Keansburg has $7.6 million, Vineland has $5.4 million, Gloucester City has $1.2 million. Monmouth County Vo-Tech has $6 million in excess aid, Ocean County Vo-Tech has $4.3 million. Between those districts and other protected districts, there is probably $50 million in "protected Adjustment Aid."

On the other hand, unless there is a recession, the State of New Jersey will experience annual revenue growth, but the amount of money left over for K-12 aid after expenses for TPAF (+$392.5 mil for FY19) and post-retirement medical (+$51.8 mil) will not equal the $284 million it was for 2018-19 since the 2018-19 budget was powered by increasing income tax rates, the transfer of the state lottery, fiscal gimmicks, flat-funding Extraordinary Aid, flat-funding municipal aid, plus stronger income tax revenue growth.

So, future new money for K-12 aid will be much less than the $284 million it was for 2018-19.

There are two factors in NJ's budgetary favor.  
  • In 2022-23 NJ is projected to reach 100% of its pension funding, so starting in 2023-24 NJ should have much more new money available for K-12 aid (or other Property Tax Relief Fund spending).  
  • The Debt Servicing costs for construction debt should start to fall, (unless there is another round of Abbott construction bonding).
Reaching 100% of state aid for all districts will also depend on what decisions the governor and legislature make regarding other expenses that are paid out of the Property Tax Relief Fund, ie, municipal aid, direct property tax rebates, community college, and PreK.

Given the state's extreme budget pressures for debt streams like TPAF and post-retirement medical, plus the appropriateness of funding municipal aid and direct tax rebates, and the likelihood of increases for PreK, the need to redistribute Adjustment Aid will become no less acute in the future.

----
See Also: