Yes, the 2004 Tax Increases Did Accelerate Outmigration

When people in New Jersey argue about taxes, those opposed to higher taxes warn that the 2004 income tax increases accelerated outmigration of high-income people in New Jersey.

Here's an example of an outmigration warning from January 21, 2019 by Assemblymembers Kevin Rooney and Christopher Phillips

After income taxes were increased in 2004 on people earning over $500,000, New Jersey lost $18 billion of gross income over the next nine years. Then the problem got worse. In 2013, 35 percent of the people who moved out earned over $150,000, just three years later it was 45 percent. High-income residents decide to reside elsewhere because they are taxed more than in any other state.

I've seen numerous attempts by the New Jersey Policy Perspective and similar liberal groups to debunk this, but the claim is correct.

	# of Returns		Adjusted Gross Income of In-Migrants	Adjusted Gross Income of Out-Migrants	In-Migrants % of Out-Migrant Income
	In	Out
1990-91	74,069	100,275	NA	NA
1991-92	74,712	94,315	NA	NA
1992-93	74,088	90,863	$3,109,968	$3,740,193	83.15%
1993-94	72,179	88,575	$3,080,073	$3,720,335	82.79%
1994-95	76,092	91,714	$3,168,906	$4,023,477	78.76%
1996-97	71,957	90,701	$3,665,025	$4,569,006	80.21%
1998-99	76,680	91,053	$4,437,332	$5,227,106	84.89%
1999-00	78,923	93,494	$4,668,916	$5,834,690	80.02%
2000-01	81,574	94,149	$5,271,005	$6,713,492	78.51%
2001-02	82,308	94,335	$5,119,710	$5,808,325	88.14%
2002-03	79,049	94,606	$4,591,525	$5,446,912	84.30%
2003-04	77,667	98,422	$4,613,696	$5,726,311	80.57%
Average 1992-2004					82.14%
2004-05	79,062	104,014	$4,859,034	$6,661,067	72.95%
2005-06	80,561	109,461	$5,190,136	$7,149,857	72.59%
2006-07	76,751	102,940	$4,860,283	$6,948,131	69.95%
2007-08	79,519	101,091	$5,232,255	$6,814,362	76.78%
2008-09	77,106	92,412	$4,765,374	$5,968,435	79.84%
2009-10	73,241	87,630	$4,277,277	$5,542,167	77.18%
2010-11	74,343	93,872	$4,486,058	$6,091,112	73.65%
2011-12	90,339	107,415	$5,766,367	$7,863,770	73.33%
2012-13	87,796	106,749	$7,108,936	$8,717,719	81.55%
2013-14	79,397	103,380	$5,769,268	$8,806,488	65.51%
2014-15	62,791	83,295	$4,646,875	$7,078,183	65.65%
2015-16	82,629	109,569	$7,479,871	$11,009,181	67.94%
Average 2004-2016)					73.08%

See  https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-2015-2016

The New Jersey Policy Perspective claims that income can never be taken out of a state because income is tied to an employer or client base, but 25% of NJ's income is non-wage income that is transferable and sometimes salary income is transferable if someone works from home, someone's employer relocates, or if someone moves to another state and keeps the NJ job.

----

See:
"They're Staying Away in Droves"